Bloomberg Podcasts · Will El Niño Trigger Africa’s Next Food Crisis? | Next Africa

1. 1. El Niño is part of a natural cycle of warming and cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and the current event is expected to be one of the most powerful since 1950.
2. 2. In Africa, El Niño typically causes drying in the northern belt from July to September and in southern Africa from November onward, while eastern Africa may receive extra rainfall.
3. 3. Climate change can both blunt and worsen El Niño impacts, making outcomes less predictable than historical patterns suggest.
4. 4. The current El Niño threatens cocoa production in West Africa, where drier weather could impair flowering and reduce yields.
5. 5. Uganda, a top robusta coffee producer, may face flooding and quality issues from expected heavier rains during El Niño.
6. 6. Cotton production in West Africa is also at risk from dry weather, potentially worsening an already projected global cotton deficit.
7. 7. Farmers face a 'wait and see' mode due to the unpredictability of El Niño, with limited options to mitigate risks like flooding.
8. 8. The market may not be fully pricing in El Niño risks, but prices for affected commodities have already begun to rise.