This time, Trump and Netanyahu have really fallen out

1. 1. Donald Trump was furious with Benjamin Netanyahu after an Israeli strike on Beirut nearly sabotaged a US-Iran deal planned for Trump's 80th birthday.
2. 2. Netanyahu's strike was likely motivated by his belief that Trump's Iran deal would be a political death sentence for him, pushing him to reignite conflict.
3. 3. Netanyahu had previously convinced Trump and the Israeli public that 'Operation Epic Fury' would lead to the downfall of Iran's theocratic regime through targeted military actions.
4. 4. The failure of Netanyahu's geopolitical gamble has left him with the unpalatable choice of either accepting an Iran deal that strengthens Iran or overtly breaking with the US by trying to scupper it.
5. 5. Netanyahu's influence in Washington has significantly diminished, as the initial brief neoconservative resurgence that supported early strikes on Iran has since reversed.
6. 6. While Trump's base maintains unwavering loyalty, divergent views on Iran have created intense animosity between interventionist and America First factions within Washington.
7. 7. Trump's stated war objectives have shifted from aiding Iranian protesters to merely reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that was already unimpeded before the conflict.
8. 8. The America First camp is prepared to support whatever deal Trump strikes, even if less favorable than Obama's, viewing it as an end to Trump's involvement in 'Middle Eastern forever wars.'
9. 9. Netanyahu faces an extremely challenging situation, and any attempt to jeopardize the ongoing Iran talks could provoke a severe and unpredictable reaction from President Trump.