Bloomberg Podcasts · US, Iran Step Up Attacks as Fears Grow of Return to Full War

1. 1. Elaine argued the war with Iran is likely to end like the first Iraq War, leaving a wounded but intact regime and a new normal of recurring small wars.
2. 2. Iran's sustained control over the Strait of Hormuz has exceeded expectations, making the war worse than Elaine predicted.
3. 3. Elaine believes the least bad way to end the war is to cut a deal with Iran, essentially financial bribery via sanctions relief.
4. 4. The alternative of military pressure is failing because Iran is resilient and Trump is unwilling to go far enough to change the regime.
5. 5. Oil prices could still explode to $200 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period, but the more likely scenario is a new normal of $80-$100.
6. 6. Over the long term, Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz is a depreciating asset as countries build alternative pipelines.
7. 7. Elaine places primary responsibility for the war on Trump, who chose to act where Biden and Obama refused Netanyahu's pressure.
8. 8. The House vote with over 100 Democrats restricting aid to Israel signals a shift toward treating Israel as a normal country, not a blank check.