Trump and Xi will not determine Taiwan’s fate

1. 1. Taiwan's future hinges significantly on its own will to resist coerced incorporation, rather than being solely dictated by decisions made in Washington and Beijing.
2. 2. Recent conflicts in Ukraine and Iran demonstrate that military superpowers do not always win against smaller countries, especially with advancements in warfare technology.
3. 3. Taiwan possesses significant economic and technological strengths, ranking among the world's richest and most advanced economies.
4. 4. Taiwan produces its own anti-ship missiles and drones, and its island geography offers a 'stopping power of water' against a seaborne invasion.
5. 5. While Taiwan is vulnerable to a blockade, such operations are also susceptible to missiles and mines, and prolonged blockades would severely disrupt the global economy.
6. 6. Even if Beijing achieved a military victory, imposing a dictatorship on Taiwan's vibrant democracy would lead to decades of repression and prolonged resistance.
7. 7. The author warns that Beijing may suffer a 'failure of imagination,' similar to Russia's regarding Ukraine, underestimating Taiwan's genuine will to resist Chinese rule.