Opinion | China’s Peak Is Now

1. 1. Six years ago, the author predicted a "Chinese decade," a period where China's power would peak, significantly challenging the American position.
2. 2. The author admits his pandemic analysis was wrong, as America's less structured approach proved more effective than China's long-term containment strategy.
3. 3. Despite efforts toward decoupling, China maintains profound industrial, scientific, and technological advantages, especially in manufacturing machine tools, robots, and drones.
4. 4. The American military's collapsing stockpile, evident during a recent regional conflict with Iran, raises concerns about its ability to sustain a conflict in East Asia.
5. 5. China's economic growth has struggled significantly since 2021, reversing its nominal GDP convergence with the United States and potentially never becoming the world's largest economy.
6. 6. China faces a severe demographic crisis, with its fertility rate crashing to 1.0 births per woman in 2025 and experiencing four consecutive years of population decline.
7. 7. The author speculates that if Xi Jinping recognizes China's power is peaking, he might plan for confrontation very soon, rather than waiting for future decline.