Xi, Trump and the Thucydides trap

1. 1. Chinese President Xi Jinping cautioned US President Donald Trump about the "Thucydides trap" during their Beijing talks, referencing ancient history's warning of war between a rising power and an established hegemon.
2. 2. After a decade of increasing friction, the summit between Trump and Xi appeared to stabilize the US-China relationship, with Xi speaking of "strategic stability" and Trump focusing on improving business ties.
3. 3. Despite the positive atmosphere, the summit was seen as a missed opportunity for addressing major global challenges and bilateral tensions, which were largely skirted.
4. 4. The future of Taiwan remains a critical and sensitive flashpoint, with Trump's subsequent indecision on a planned $14 billion arms sale alarming Taipei and regional allies.
5. 5. The summit ultimately met its low expectations, yielding few significant business deals despite Trump's high-profile corporate entourage.
6. 6. Xi Jinping explicitly warned that mishandling the "Taiwan question" could lead to conflict, reiterating a consistent red line for Beijing.
7. 7. Despite a temporary stabilization, fears of the "Thucydides trap" are expected to persist at the forefront of the global agenda in the years ahead.