If Brussels starts a trade war, Beijing will finish it

1. 1. The EU's growing alarm at China's dominance in green technology and its interventionist trade policies has been consistently restrained by internal divisions among member states.
2. 2. Past experiences, such as Donald Trump's interactions with China, illustrate Beijing's "escalation dominance" in trade conflicts, particularly through its ability to weaponize critical resources like rare earth elements.
3. 3. A recent simulation of an EU-China trade war revealed Europe's deep internal disunity and immediate vulnerabilities to severe Chinese retaliation.
4. 4. The trade war simulation exposed a critical "timeline disconnect" where EU actions would yield slow results, but China's countermeasures could devastate European industries within weeks.
5. 5. China's sophisticated export control regime for rare earths, which requires end-user licenses, effectively prevents the EU from simply stockpiling these critical minerals as a protective measure.
6. 6. The only viable long-term solution for the EU is to proactively develop a more resilient industrial sector and significantly reduce its dependence on critical materials like rare earths.
7. 7. The author suggests that the strong temptation for the EU to initiate a trade war against China risks falling into a "politician’s syllogism"—taking action merely for the sake of doing something.
8. 8. The upcoming EU meeting is predicted to produce vaguely threatening but ultimately unspecific pronouncements, reflecting the bloc's current limitations and lack of concrete leverage.